Montgomery County, Maryland
Economic Impact Report
At the $90/ton planning-basis FWDC, ACM deployment produces a Circular Royalty™ stream beginning 13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery — reaching $45.3M/year by Phase Initial steady state, reported as a separate transaction from the Beneficiation Fee, at zero County capital investment.
What this document is
What Montgomery County pays and receives under its current system compared with an Advanced Circular Manufacturing deployment — each flow quantified and reported separately across the 30-year term.
- Continuing with the current system leaves the County exposed to a contract expiry it does not control and to disposal costs that rise year over year.
- Under the CSA the County pays a Beneficiation Fee and receives a Circular Royalty™; both are gross figures and are shown independently throughout.
- The conclusion holds across the sensitivity range, including the cases where the unconfirmed disposal cost is verified lower than the planning estimate.
- Read the commercial terms ↗The structure these figures price.
- Check the underlying volumes ↗Where the tonnage and cost inputs come from.
- One-page summary ↗The decision and its deadline, briefly.
Inherited Confidence Flags
Introduction & Decision Summary
This EIR models the Circular Supply Agreement (CSA) — Carbotura’s single commercial structure, under which Montgomery County pays the Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) and receives the Circular Royalty™. The Exogenesis™ Royalty is a CSA add-on running concurrently with the Circular Royalty™, fully described in the Proposal §4.2.
§ 1.1 — What This Report Measures
This Economic Impact Report quantifies the difference between two states for Montgomery County:
State A Montgomery County's current system — 1,800 TPD to the Dickerson RRF under the NMWDA service agreement expiring April 2031. No in-county landfill fallback. Documented in the Waste Study.
State B ACM deployed under a 30-year CSA, modelled under the Circular Supply Agreement (CSA) — Phase Initial 400 TPD at zero County capex, Beneficiation Fee at $100/ton planning floor, Circular Royalty™ from 13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery. Defined by the Proposal EIR Input Block. The Exogenesis™ Royalty add-on runs concurrently with the Circular Royalty™; its fiscal analysis appears in the Proposal §4.2.
All State A values derive from the Waste Study. All State B values derive from the Proposal EIR Input Block. The EIR quantifies the delta only.
§ 1.2 — Decision Summary Table
| Parameter | State A (Current) | State B Year 1 | State B Year 2 | State B Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual feedstock (Phase Initial equiv.) | 657,000 tpy full stream | 146,000 tpy | 146,000 tpy | 146,000 tpy |
| Annual cost / obligation | ~$59.1M EST | $14.6M TMC | $14.97M TMC | $30.6M TMC |
| Beneficiation Fee paid | N/A | −$14.6M | −$14.97M | −$30.6M |
| Circular Royalty™ received | N/A | $0 (pre-royalty) | +$17.52M | +$45.3M |
| County capital obligation | RRF renewal capex | Zero | Zero | Zero |
| Key data gap | FWDC not confirmed — $90/ton estimate used. Gross displacement negative at this level; Circular Royalty™ receipts begin 13 months after Carbotura’s receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment, and are reported as a separate transaction. | |||
| Decision deadline | RFP #1184252 award pending Q1–Q2 2026. CFS authorization required Q2–Q3 2026 for Phase Initial COD before April 2031. | |||
| Regulatory Predicate | ACM permitted only under NAICS 325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492 (manufacturing). Both parties commit to the manufacturing pathway; the endpoint is categorical and interim bridging authorities may apply. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27), 40 CFR §261.2(e), 40 CFR §260.43. Classification confirmation is actively pursued; nothing in this engagement is contingent on it. | Standing condition · MR §3 | ||
§ 1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation
State A Baseline — Current System
All State A values sourced from Waste Study. No new diagnosis in this section.
§ 2.1 — Feedstock Volume and Disposition
| Stream | Annual (tpy) | TPD | Current Destination | Access Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSW Residual | 657,000 | 1,800 | Shady Grove TS → CSX rail → Dickerson RRF | IMMEDIATE |
| Dual-Stream Recyclables | 175,200 | 480 | Shady Grove MRF → commodities | CONDITIONAL |
| Yard Trim | 116,800 | 320 | County composting | CONDITIONAL |
| Organics / Food Scraps | 65,700 | 180 | Emerging diversion; majority to RRF | CONDITIONAL |
| Biosolids — MC Share | 52,925 | 145 | WSSC Water WRRFs → Piscataway Bioenergy | CONDITIONAL |
| C&D Debris | 80,300 | 220 | Private facilities | ACCESSIBLE |
| Special Waste / HHW | 27,375 | 75 | HHW programs | ACCESSIBLE |
§ 2.2 — State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Per Ton | Annual (657K tpy) | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collector-facing tipping fee | $70/ton | $45.99M | VERIFIED |
| FWDC — County TS+RRF combined estimate | ~$90/ton | ~$59.1M | ESTIMATED |
| NMWDA service agreement cost | Not disclosed | Data Gap | Data Gap |
| Ash residue disposal — Brunswick, VA | Not disclosed | Data Gap | Data Gap |
§ 2.3 — State A Cost Trajectory
Three mechanisms drive State A cost upward: (1) rate escalation — tipping fee rises year-over-year with DEP operating cost growth; (2) capital reinvestment pressure — Dickerson RRF is 30 years old; renewal requires major capital investment passed through as per-ton cost; (3) absence of competitive alternatives — single-vendor market sustains rate growth. Bridge long-haul alternative: ~$130/ton (+$40/ton above current FWDC estimate).
§ 2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position
| Factor | State A Condition |
|---|---|
| Single-facility dependency | 100% of MSW Residual (657K tpy) at one facility. No in-county landfill fallback. |
| Ash residue EJ exposure | ~26% of input weight to Brunswick County, VA landfill — majority low-income, majority Black community (County council record). |
| PFAS pathway | Incineration does not fully destroy PFAS. No PFAS mitigation in current system. |
| Contract hard deadline | RRF service agreement expires April 2031. Emergency extension to April 2026 executed. |
| RFP #1184252 | Closed November 11, 2025. Award pending Q1–Q2 2026. Award locks interim disposal pathway. |
State B Deployment Baseline
All State B values sourced exclusively from Proposal EIR Input Block. No independent derivation.
§ 3.1 — Inherited Flags
All confidence classifications from the Proposal EIR Input Block are inherited verbatim. Beneficiation Fee ($100/ton) ESTIMATED pending FWDC confirmation. All Circular Royalty™ projections ESTIMATED at $100/ton planning basis. Phase configuration and CapEx are Carbotura standard parameters. Priority 1 site ESTIMATED; confirmed at CFS. This section models the CSA — Beneficiation Fee (TMC Fee) + Circular Royalty™; the Exogenesis™ Royalty (add-on, $50/ton extracted from Year 6, concurrent with the Circular Royalty™) is documented in the Proposal §4.2.
§ 3.2 — Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Modules | Annual (tpy) | COD | CapEx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial | 400 | 4 (ceil(400/100)) | 146,000 | Q4 2028 – Q1 2029 | $262.5M |
| Medium | 1,000 | 10 | 365,000 | Q2–Q3 2030 | $627.5M cumulative |
| Expanded | 2,000 | 20 | 730,000 | Q2–Q3 2031 | $1,232.5M cumulative |
CapEx: $75M first module; $57.5M each additional. COD per Carbotura standard deployment schedule. Carbotura standard parameters
§ 3.3 — Economic Terms (State B)
| Parameter | Value | Source Type |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee — planning basis | $100/ton (floor) | ESTIMATED |
| Beneficiation Fee annual escalator | 2.5%/year | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Circular Royalty™ base rate (Year 1) | 120% of Year 1 TMC = $120/ton | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Circular Royalty™ escalator | +1 percentage point per year | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Payment lag | 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payment | Carbotura standard parameters |
| County capex obligation | Zero | CONFIRMED |
§ 3.4 — Residual Obligations
Under Phase Initial (400 TPD / 146,000 tpy), 511,000 tpy of MSW Residual remains outside the ACM agreement — continuing through the existing disposal pathway. The bridge long-haul RFP (#1184252) is expected to cover this residual volume. Residual volume disposition is a State A cost on residual volume — not a State B cost.
§ 3.5 — Timeline Anchoring
Carbotura standard deployment schedule. T0 = CFS authorization. Phase Initial COD: T0 + 24 months. First Circular Royalty™ payment: T0 + 37 months. For T0 Q4 2026: COD Q4 2028–Q1 2029; first royalty Q1–Q2 2030; April 2031 RRF expiry at Phase Initial Month 27–29.
§ 3.6 — Phase Delta Map
Geographic delta: State A current infrastructure (steel/grey pins) vs. State B ACM deployment (Emerald square). Single interactive map. Right panel shows two labelled groups.
Delta Analysis
§ 4.1 — Three Delta Components
1. Gross Cost Displacement: FWDC vs. Beneficiation Fee for converted volume. At $90/ton FWDC and $100/ton Beneficiation Fee floor: gross displacement = −$10/ton. Sign-change threshold: FWDC > $105/ton. Circular Royalty™ receipts are an independent cash flow, reported as a separate transaction.
2. Circular Royalty™ Cash Flow: Rolling monthly from 13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery. Year 2 royalty ($17.52M) exceeds Beneficiation Fee ($14.97M) on a per-ton basis — reported as separate transactions per the Separate Transaction Principle.
3. Residual Volume Cost: State A cost on remaining 511K tpy outside Phase Initial. Not a State B cost; included for completeness.
§ 4.2 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table (Phase Initial basis)
| Line Item | State A (146K tpy equiv.) | State B Year 1 | State B Year 2 | State B Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual cost / Beneficiation Fee | $13.14M (at $90/ton est.) | $14.60M | $14.97M | $30.61M |
| Circular Royalty™ received | N/A | $0 | $17.52M | $45.31M |
| Year 1 flows | — | Fee −$14.60M; Royalty $0 | — | — |
| Year 2+ flows | — | — | Fee −$14.97M; Royalty +$17.52M | Fee −$30.6M; Royalty +$45.3M |
| County capital obligation | RRF renewal capex | Zero | Zero | Zero |
Year 1 and post-13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
Year 1: County pays Beneficiation Fee (−$14.6M); receives zero Circular Royalty™. Structural feature of 13-month lag. 13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery: rolling royalty begins. Year 2: first full-year of paired flows (Fee −$14.97M; Royalty +$17.52M, reported as separate transactions). Averaging Year 1 and Year 2+ produces a misleading figure. All tables present three distinct fiscal periods: Year 1 / Year 2+ / Steady-state.
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow. Both are independent financial effects of the CSA. At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis. Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
§ 4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement
| Year | State A FWDC (146K tpy, est.) | Beneficiation Fee | Gross Displacement | Sign |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.14M | $14.60M | −$1.46M | Negative at $90/ton FWDC est. |
| Year 5 | $14.08M | $16.04M | −$1.96M | Negative |
| Year 10 | $15.14M | $18.53M | −$3.39M | Negative |
| Year 30 | $22.77M | $30.61M | −$7.84M | Negative |
Gross displacement negative because Beneficiation Fee floor ($100) > FWDC estimate ($90). Sign-change at FWDC > $105/ton. Per-HH implied rate ($108.57/ton) suggests FWDC may exceed threshold — confirmed at CFS. Circular Royalty™ receipts begin 13 months after Carbotura’s receipt of the first Beneficiation Fee payment, and are reported as a separate transaction. ESTIMATED
§ 4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™ Cash Flow
| Year | Avoided Disposal | Beneficiation Fee Paid | Circular Royalty™ Received |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13,140,000 | $14,600,000 | $0 |
| Year 2 | $13,468,000 | $14,965,000 | $17,520,000 |
| Year 5 | $14,504,000 | $16,116,000 | $19,339,000 |
| Year 10 | $16,410,000 | $18,233,000 | $22,770,000 |
| Year 20 | $21,006,000 | $23,340,000 | $31,424,000 |
| Year 30 | $26,890,000 | $29,878,000 | $43,140,000 |
Phase Initial (146,000 tpy) at $100/ton planning basis. 120% Year 1 base; +1pp/yr; 13-month lag; 2.5%/yr TMC escalator. ESTIMATED · Carbotura standard parameters
System-Level Impact
§ 5.1 — Employment Delta
| Effect | Phase Initial | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE employment | 100 FTE (designed for) | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Indirect and induced employment | ~300 jobs | Carbotura standard parameters |
| Annual economic impact | $32M+/year (designed for) | Carbotura standard parameters |
§ 5.2 — Environmental Delta
| Dimension | State A | State B | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon impact | Incineration of 146K tpy — CO₂ from combustion + rail transport | Designed for −1,522 to −1,566 tons CO₂e/day at 400 TPD | Designed for significant emissions reduction (designed for, not guaranteed) |
| Ash residue to landfill | ~26% input weight → Brunswick, VA landfill (EJ-impacted) | Near-zero landfill residue from converted volume — designed for | Ash stream eliminated from converted volume |
| Rail/truck traffic | Daily CSX rail Shady Grove–Dickerson (20 mi); rail to Brunswick, VA | On-site/adjacent processing — designed to eliminate current rail haul for converted volumes | Rail dependency eliminated for converted volume |
"Designed for" qualifying language per MASTER_RULES §1.3. Performance confirmed at CFS.
§ 5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta
State A: Incineration does not fully destroy PFAS. PFAS appear in emissions and ash residue. No mitigation mechanism. State B: ACM's Microwave Catalytic Reforming achieves complete PFAS elimination through elemental dissociation at over 1,200°C. PFAS do not appear in ACM output streams. The PFAS delta is structural — eliminates, rather than manages, the PFAS pathway for converted volumes.
§ 5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis
Montgomery County has no active in-county landfill. If the RRF contract expires April 2031 without a contracted alternative, the County has no disposal pathway for 657,000 TPY. Bridge long-haul at $130/ton = $85.4M/year exposure — $26.3M/year more than current FWDC estimate for full stream. ACM Phase Initial addresses 22% of this position. No alternative addresses the structural single-facility dependency without engagement in the current window.
Risk & Sensitivity
§ 6.1 — Risk Register (10 risks)
| Risk | Driver | Who Bears | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC confirmed below $105/ton (gross displacement negative) | FWDC not confirmed | Both | CFS confirms; Circular Royalty™ receipts begin 13 months after corresponding feedstock delivery regardless of FWDC level (reported as separate transaction) | Royalty receipt schedule unaffected by FWDC level |
| TMC floor ($100) exceeds confirmed FWDC | FWDC est. $90/ton | County (marginal) | Per-HH implied rate suggests FWDC may exceed $105/ton; CFS confirms | Max incremental: $1.46M/yr at Phase Initial Year 1 |
| Phase Initial COD slips past April 2031 | Permitting; site; construction | Carbotura | P1 site pre-identified; 27–30 month buffer from target T0 | County may need bridge coverage for gap at $130/ton |
| RFP #1184252 award before CFS authorization | Active procurement | Both | Authorize CFS before award; CFS does not foreclose bridge | Bridge term determines re-entry window; ACM not blocked, delayed |
| Circular Materials revenue below baseline | Manufactured materials markets | Carbotura | County Beneficiation Fee not contingent on Circular Materials revenue | County fiscal flows unchanged; Carbotura economics affected |
| Technology performance below RevCon™ 3 | Feedstock composition | Carbotura | Performance warranty in CSA; RevCon™ 3 conservative baseline | County Beneficiation Fee obligation unchanged |
| CONDITIONAL stream access fails | MRF contract; WSSC Water | Both | Phase Initial IMMEDIATE-only; CONDITIONAL streams Phase Medium+ | Phase Initial unaffected |
| Priority 1 site unavailable at CFS | Land acquisition; parcels | Both | P2/P3 candidates identified; logistics premium quantifiable | P2 adds ~9-mile haul — cost increment at CFS |
| PFAS regulatory escalation | Federal PFAS in MSW | State A risk | ACM eliminates PFAS pathway; regulatory escalation increases State A cost | Asymmetric: increases State A, no State B equivalent |
| Bridge contract term extends beyond ACM COD | Bridge contract term unknown | Both | CFS timed parallel to bridge; ACM entry structured at bridge expiry | If bridge term 5+ years, ACM entry shifts to 2031–2033 |
§ 6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%
| Scenario | Annual Volume | Year 2 Beneficiation Fee | Year 2 Royalty | Year 2 Royalty − Fee per-ton |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (146K tpy) | 146,000 | $14.97M | $17.52M | +$2.555M |
| −20% (116.8K tpy) | 116,800 | $11.97M | $14.02M | +$2.05M |
| +20% (175.2K tpy) | 175,200 | $17.96M | $21.02M | +$3.06M |
Per-ton Circular Royalty™ rate exceeds per-ton Beneficiation Fee in Year 2 across ±20% feedstock variability. Beneficiation Fee and royalty scale proportionally; reported as separate transactions. ESTIMATED
§ 6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold
| FWDC Scenario | Beneficiation Fee | Gross Displacement/ton | Year 2 Royalty − Fee per-ton |
|---|---|---|---|
| $80/ton | $100 (floor) | −$20/ton | +$2.555M (royalty unchanged) |
| $90/ton (current estimate) | $100 (floor) | −$10/ton | +$2.555M |
| $105/ton (sign-change) | $100 (floor) | $0 (break-even) | +$2.555M |
| $120/ton | $115 (FWDC−$5) | +$5/ton | ~+$2.55M |
| $150/ton | $145 (FWDC−$5) | +$5/ton | ~+$3.41M |
Per-ton Circular Royalty™ rate exceeds per-ton Beneficiation Fee in Year 2 at ALL FWDC scenarios. Gross displacement sign-change at $105/ton — relevant to Year 1 framing only. ESTIMATED
§ 6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity (0 / +1 / +2pp)
| Escalator | Year 10 Royalty | Year 30 Royalty | Year 30 Royalty − Fee per-ton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero escalator (flat 120%) | $21.5M | $35.1M | +$4.5M |
| +1pp/yr (standard) | $23.6M | $45.3M | +$14.7M |
| +2pp/yr (upside) | $26.3M | $58.5M | +$27.9M |
§ 6.5 — Timeline Slippage
| T0 Scenario | COD | Months before April 2031 | First Royalty |
|---|---|---|---|
| T0 Q4 2026 (target) | Q4 2028–Q1 2029 | 27–30 months | Q1–Q2 2030 |
| T0 Q2 2027 (6-month slip) | Q2–Q3 2029 | 19–22 months | Q3–Q4 2030 |
| T0 Q4 2027 (12-month slip) | Q4 2029–Q1 2030 | 12–18 months | Q1–Q2 2031 |
| T0 Q2 2028 (18-month slip) | Q2–Q3 2030 | 6–12 months | Q3–Q4 2031 (post-April) |
Decision Window Analysis
§ 7.1 — Binding Constraints (named explicitly)
Constraint 1 — RFP #1184252 award (Q1–Q2 2026, pending): Locks bridge disposal contractor and interim pathway for contract term. Near-term irreversibility event.
Constraint 2 — CFS authorization deadline (Q2–Q3 2026): To achieve Phase Initial COD before April 2031, the CFS must be authorized no later than Q2–Q3 2026. Allows 24 months for CFS, CSA execution, design, permitting, and construction.
Constraint 3 — RRF contract expiry (April 2031): Hard structural discontinuity. No contracted disposal pathway for 657,000 TPY after this date without active procurement.
§ 7.2 — Decision Window Table
| Decision | Deadline | Consequence of Inaction | Reversibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authorize Waste Study | Q2–Q3 2026 | Phase Initial COD slips past April 2031; bridge at $130/ton | Reversible at any time before CFS completion |
| Engage before RFP award | Now — award pending | Bridge contract locks interim pathway; ACM window narrows | Engagement keeps both pathways open simultaneously |
| Execute Circular Supply Agreement | Q1 2027 (CFS gating) | No construction mobilization | Reversible until CSA execution |
| Renew RRF service agreement (alternative) | ~2027–2028 | Capex commitment; ACM pathway foreclosed for renewal term | Irreversible for renewal term |
§ 7.3 — Irreversibility Mechanism
§ 7.4 — Optionality Matrix
| Action | ACM Pathway | Bridge Option | RRF Renewal Option | Comparative Option Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Authorize CFS before RFP award | Open | Open | Open | Maximum — all three viable |
| Authorize CFS after RFP award | Open (entry at bridge expiry) | Awarded | Open | Reduced — bridge term governs ACM entry |
| No CFS; await RRF renewal | Delayed | Active | Open | Lowest — ACM window narrows with each procurement |
| Execute RRF renewal | Foreclosed for renewal term | Superseded | Committed | Lowest — ACM foreclosed |
- The CFS authorization resolves three financial unknowns (FWDC, Circular Materials revenue, site availability) — without committing the County to the CSA. It is the one action that does not reduce future flexibility.
- Year 1 fiscal exposure (−$14.6M Beneficiation Fee, zero royalty) equals approximately 3 months of State A costs at $90/ton FWDC. Year 2 marks the start of paired flows: Fee −$14.97M paid, Royalty +$17.52M received (separate transactions).
- PFAS regulation is asymmetric: tightening of federal PFAS standards increases State A cost; has no comparable State B cost impact. Inaction locks in this asymmetric exposure.
- The 30-year cumulative Circular Royalty™ receipt (~$1.05B Phase Initial gross) excludes Phase Medium and Phase Expanded. At Phase Expanded lifetime scale, the County's feedstock supply relationship becomes a material revenue source.
Effects Summary
No new figures. All values trace to preceding sections.
§ 8.1 — Fiscal Flows
| Period | Per-Ton Flow Summary | Cumulative Royalty Receipts | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | Fee −$14.6M; Royalty $0 | $0 | §4.5 |
| Year 2 (royalty begins) | Fee −$14.97M; Royalty +$17.52M | +$17,520,000 | §4.5 |
| Year 5 | Royalty exceeds Fee on per-ton basis | Cumulative royalty growing | §4.5 |
| Year 30 (steady state) | Fee −$30.6M; Royalty +$45.3M | ~$1,050,000,000 | §4.5 |
§ 8.2 — Regional Economic Effects
Regional economic effects — not county fiscal receipts. Not included in §8.1.
| Effect | Phase Initial |
|---|---|
| Direct employment | 100 FTE (designed for) |
| Indirect/induced jobs | ~300 |
| Annual economic impact | $32M+/year (designed for) |
§ 8.3 — Environmental Effects
Designed-performance basis. "Designed for" qualifying language throughout.
| Dimension | Effect |
|---|---|
| Carbon emissions | Designed for significant reduction vs. incineration (quantified at CFS) |
| Ash residue to landfill | Eliminated from converted volume — designed for near-zero landfill output |
| EJ exposure (Brunswick, VA) | Eliminated for converted volumes |
| PFAS pathway | Eliminated — complete breakdown at 1,200°C+ |
§ 8.4 — Structural Effects
| Dimension | State A | State B (Phase Initial) |
|---|---|---|
| Single-facility dependency | 100% of 657K tpy at one facility | 22% converted at ACM; 78% residual at bridge contractor |
| Off-county disposal dependency | Ash to Brunswick, VA; bridge to out-of-county landfill | Ash eliminated from converted volume |
| County capex exposure | RRF renewal = major capex commitment | Zero County capex — BOO structure |
| Cost structure | Fixed capex commitment under renewal; rising variable costs under bridge | Variable Beneficiation Fee (per ton) + Circular Royalty™ receipt |
§ 8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps
| Data Gap | Impact | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|
| FWDC (confirmed all-in per-ton cost) | High — governs Beneficiation Fee; currently ESTIMATED at $90/ton | Waste Study — DEP full cost disclosure |
| Circular Materials revenue | Medium — County Beneficiation Fee not contingent; Carbotura economics affected | CFS RevCon™ 3 product offtake confirmation |
| NMWDA service agreement cost | Medium — prevents full State A FWDC confirmation | DEP operating budget disclosure |
| Priority 1 site availability | Medium — deployment timing; P2/P3 alternatives identified | CFS site assessment deliverable |
| Biosolids MC apportionment | Low — Phase Medium+ only | Bilateral WSSC Water engagement |
| Bridge contract term (RFP #1184252) | Medium — determines ACM re-entry window if award precedes CFS | RFP award terms (public record) |
Sources
- Montgomery County Waste Study (Stage 0) — all State A values · March 2026
- Carbotura Circular Advantage Proposal EIR Input Block — all State B values · March 2026
- Montgomery County DEP — Council Briefing January 28, 2025 (FWDC ~$90/ton; bridge ~$130/ton)
- NMWDA — Montgomery County RRF · nmwda.org/montgomery-county · Oct 2025
- RFP #1184252 — BidNet Maryland Purchasing Group · Closed Nov 11, 2025
- Carbotura standard parameters — Phase configuration, CapEx, royalty formula, employment, environmental performance
Methodology Notes
- FWDC derivation: ~$90/ton from DEP January 2025 council briefing. Not independently audited. Planning basis only.
- Beneficiation Fee formula: MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC−$5)). At $90/ton FWDC, floor applies: TMC = $100/ton. Sign-change at $105/ton FWDC.
- Phase sizing: ceil(TPD/100). Phase Initial: 4 modules. COD: T0 + 24 months (Carbotura standard).
- Royalty formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m). Base: 120% Year 1 TMC. Escalator: +1pp/yr. Lag: 13 months. Rolling monthly.
- Employment basis: 100 direct FTE designed for 400 TPD. ~300 indirect/induced. "Designed for" language throughout.
- Timeline basis: Carbotura standard schedule. T0 = CFS authorization Q4 2026. Phase Initial COD T0+24. First royalty T0+37.
| Figure | Value | Source | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial annual feedstock | 146,000 tpy | Proposal EIR Input Block (400 × 365) | MODELED |
| Beneficiation Fee planning basis | $100/ton | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| Year 1 Beneficiation Fee paid | −$14,600,000 (pre-royalty) | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| Year 2 Beneficiation Fee paid | −$14,970,000 | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| Year 2 Circular Royalty™ received | +$17,520,000 (separate transaction) | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| Year 30 Beneficiation Fee paid | −$30,600,000 | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| Year 30 Circular Royalty™ received | +$45,300,000 (separate transaction) | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| 30-year cumulative Circular Royalty™ (Phase Initial, gross) | ~$1,050,000,000 | Proposal EIR Input Block | ESTIMATED |
| State A FWDC | ~$90/ton | Montgomery County DEP council briefing, January 28, 2025 | ESTIMATED |
| RRF contract expiry | April 2031 | NMWDA / Montgomery County DEP Zero Waste page | VERIFIED |
| ACM Priority 1 site | Shady Grove Industrial Corridor, 39.145, −77.134 | Proposal §2.4 site analysis | ESTIMATED — CFS |